Guide
A cash flow forecast example, worked end to end
Forecasts are easier to build than to understand. This worked example follows a freelancer through eight weeks of a real projection — the numbers, the negative week that appeared, and the two changes that fixed it.
- Real numbers
An 8-week projection with actual income, bills and balances.
- The gap week
Week 5 goes negative — and here is exactly why.
- The two fixes
A due-date shift and a buffer top-up, with the math shown.
- The lesson
Forecasts fail when they are not updated, not when they are wrong.
The starting position
| Week | Income | Bills | Net | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $2,400 | $1,100 | +$1,300 | $1,300 |
| 2 | $0 | $850 | −$850 | $450 |
| 3 | $3,100 | $1,050 | +$2,050 | $2,500 |
| 4 | $0 | $900 | −$900 | $1,600 |
| 5 | $0 | $1,750 | −$1,750 | −$150 |
| 6 | $2,800 | $900 | +$1,900 | $1,750 |
| 7 | $0 | $850 | −$850 | $900 |
| 8 | $3,400 | $1,050 | +$2,350 | $3,250 |
What happened in week 5
- A client paid late — the $2,800 invoice moved from week 5 to week 6.
- A quarterly insurance bill of $750 landed unplanned.
- The projected balance crossed zero on Thursday of week 5.
The fixes
Fix one: the insurance due date moved to the 20th, landing in week 6 after the invoice arrived. Fix two: the freelancer built a $1,000 buffer into the starting balance the following month.
The lesson is not that the forecast was wrong — it is that the forecast was checked weekly, so the gap was seen three weeks ahead instead of on the day.
Frequently asked questions
What does a cash flow forecast look like?
A week-by-week table of income, bills, net and running balance — usually 8 to 13 weeks, updated weekly.
Why did the example forecast fail in week 5?
A late invoice and an unplanned quarterly bill collided. The forecast did not fail — it revealed the collision three weeks early.
How do I fix a negative week?
Move a bill date, trim a recurring cost, or add a buffer — then update the forecast to see the effect.
How accurate are cash flow forecasts?
Fixed costs and contracted income are near-exact; variable income should be conservative. Accuracy comes from weekly updates, not initial precision.
Learn from a forecast that got checked
Free weekly forecasting with a running balance.